Week 48 Major Markets Trending and Performance
Trending Heat Map
All the markets improved from last week.
Week-over-Week Performance
That is positive returns for all markets 2 weeks in a row.
Performance 2022
Fantastic month of November for all the major markets. And it looks like the global markets were the leaders. The Dow Jones could break even for the calendar year if we have a good December. The other markets still have a way to go.
Technical Observations
S&P 500 (SPX): The price is definitely at a critical point. I drew a trendline connecting the prior 3 highs starting in January and the price is exactly at that downward sloping trendline. Not sure why we should expect the price to break through that trendline this time. The 150-day moving average is also not exactly turning and indicating a bearish to bullish reversal yet. The price is currently at 4071 and there is an overhead unfilled gap between 4202 and 4220 that needs to be filled at some point. But I think the probability that price hits around 3950 first is greater.
Here is the chart.
Dow Jones: The 150-day moving average is definitely curving to indicate a bearish to bullish reversal. The price has been stuck at a key level (band) of 33500-34500. I see support at 33200 and resistance at 35400. I say there is currently a greater probability it goes higher.
Here is the chart.
NASDAQ: The 150-day is not yet curving to indicate a bearish to bullish reversal. The price is hovering around the 150-day and that seems to be a barrier at this time. The hand-drawn trendline connects the last 2 lower highs and shows that current price is not close to that yet. There is another shorter duration trend channel where the price is oscillating within at this time. The price is at 11461 and the resistance is at 11800. There is a higher probability that the price stays under the 11800 level.
Here is the chart.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ): It looks exactly like the NASDAQ.
Here is the chart.
Russell 2000 (IWM): The 150-day curve does not yet look good to me. It seems like it tried to make a bearish to bullish reversal in March and then again in August. It failed both times so why should it succeed this time? Price is at 188.05 and I see overhead resistance at around the 190 level. There seems to be a double-bottom formation around the 160 level from where price has spiked up twice. The question is will it form a perfect W and go all the way to the 210 level or will it falter from here itself. I have also drawn a freehand trendline connecting the last 2 lower highs and that also converges to around the 190 level. So, all in all, the probability of it going down from here is higher.
Here is the chart.
Emerging Markets (EEM): Price has gone above the 150-day moving average and hovering around it. I do not see the 150-day curving yet indicating a confirmation of bearish to bullish reversal. But there are good chances it is a matter of time. It is trading at 39.54. I see support at 38.25 and resistance at 41.12. So, the question is which one will it pierce through. I say there is currently a greater probability it goes higher.
Here is the chart.
All-Country World Index (ACWI): The 150-day is not yet turning around to indicate a bearish to bullish reversal, but it is close. I see a gap around the 84 - 84.5 area which needs to be filled at some point. It does not need to be filled immediately though. Price is currently at 89.72 and I see resistance at around 92.88. The trending is higher, but I cannot rule out a small pullback soon.
Here is the chart.
Conclusion:
It is a mixed situation. The trending is clearly on the bullish side and the November returns prove that trending. When we look towards the future though, there are some chart patterns that give cause for concern. So, the key is to trade cautiously.