Week 17 Advance Trading Week Notes

The Big Tech earnings may end up driving the markets this week. MSFT and COOGL are tomorrow (4/25) after market close, META is 4/26 after market close and AMZN is 4/27 after market close. Most of these are up big this year and are the reason for the overall markets being higher. MSFT is up +19%, GOOGL is up +18%, META is up +70% and AMZN is up +25%.

From a trending perspective, the S&P 500 continues to trend perfectly bullish while the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and Dow Jones just had their price dip below their 10-day moving averages. Still, overall, they are all trending bullish. The only one standing out is the Russell 2000 which turned long-term bearish.

I have been overly bearish and perhaps I should not be anymore. The markets have shown tremendous resilience in the face of a lot of negativities from a lot of experts. A careful observation shows that most of the indexes have gaps above and below. And both sides are close enough to be filled first.

I am positioned short the market at this time. And I have been for several weeks now. This has not worked in my favor although I have managed my positions well so that there have not been much losses. I have admitted before that I have been early to the bearish trades and been influenced by experts. That is absolutely against my model.

I think I may be emotionally attached to the thinking of markets going down as a result of which my trades are not based on my models. I need to correct that. And I will.

This is the trending heat map of the major markets:

And the correct read of that trending heat map is that all the markets are mostly trending bullish. So, then why am I so bearish. It is because I am thinking too much instead of acting on my models.

Reviewing my holdings to strike out the ones that are against my model:

GDX long - caution as price has dipped below 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is still bullish.

GLD long - more caution as the price seems to be rolling over.

SLV long - this is trending bullish.

IWM short - short-term bullish but just had a death cross so OK to hold.

TSLA short - perfectly bearish, OK to hold.

KRE short - perfectly bearish, OK to hold.

KWEB short - strongly bearish, ok to hold.

QQQ short - bullish trending, close position.

SMH short - short-term bearish, ok to hold.

SPY short - perfectly bullish, close position.

XLRE short - short-term bullish, close position.

XRT short - short-term bullish, close position.

So, I end up with 4 close positions (QQQ, SPY, XLRE and XRT) and 2 possible close positions (GLD and GDX). The plan is set.