Week 16 Trending Thursdays

The S&P 500 trailing 1-month low was on 3/22 when it closed at 3936. Yesterday it closed at 4154 which is a gain of +5.5%. In this period the QQQ gained +4.2%. So, while we have all the experts and professional money managers calling for the markets to fall, the indexes have had reasonably good gains. This is not to point out they have been wrong. It is to point out that they could still be right over time AND the markets are the markets. They will do what they do.

Short Holdings Assessment

SPY: It continues to trend perfectly bullish. The price and moving averages do seem like they want to roll over. Also, the S&P 500 seems to be stuck under 4200 which was the previous high and thus is the resistance now. I have time on this and expect it to play out.

QQQ: Similar to the SPY. In fact, it has been flat over the last month or so. Looks more like it is rolling over. The 10-day converging on the 20-day.

IWM: Has been on a narrow range all month. Now, the 50-day is about to dip below the 200-day moving average. That will happen.

KRE: Had a huge bounce yesterday. The price crossed over the 10-day and the 20-day moving averages. But these are all huddled together. So, I would not call yesterday’s move a breakout to the upside. More like what is known as a dead cat bounce.

KWEB: Short-term weakened yesterday and remains bearish.

SMH: Short-term trending is bearish.

XLRE: The trending actually got better. It will likely go down along-with the rest of the market. But could be one of the last ones to do so. I will likely lose money on this.

TSLA: The trending was perfectly bearish when I saw the chart again yesterday. It was so bad that I decided to go short just before earnings. This is something I do not do. But there was strong conviction on this one. I will likely take off this trade today.

Long Holdings Assessment

GLD: Price has fallen 3 out of the last 4 trading days. The 10-day and 20-day are close enough to each other that I am worried. The overall trending is fine though. I will watch closely.

GDX: Trending similar to GLD. I will watch closely.

SLV: Trending perfectly bullish.

VIX: The trending has been so good that it may be good now. This trade was a hedge some time back when markets were going up. The option is way out of the money. So, it remains a hedge. It is really at a very low level and the chances of it going higher are higher than lower.

Actions: The next couple of days I am primarily going to manage my trades. I do not expect to enter new ones.