SPX Trending remains Bullish and there is increased probability to 4100
We had 2 big back-to-back trading days where the S&P 500 was up +3.1% in total. With volatility around 20, common sense would say that is too much of a move and we should expect the market to give back some today.
Let us see what the charts say:
I have 2 yellow trend lines - one downward sloping over a longer period and another upward sloping over a shorter period. These lines have been converging at a point of decision making. And seems like that the decision-making time has come. The S&P 500 price broke out of the downward sloping trend line yesterday.
I also have 3 green lines indicating an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. That also signifies a higher probability that the price breaks out. And the price has broken out. The real question is whether it has the strength to go up further or not.
The next overhead resistance is at around 4100. The price closed yesterday at 4019 meaning there is a tradable opportunity up-to at least 4100 as of now. That is +2% higher from here.
The RSI is at 64 which is under 70 where I would start thinking it is overbought. So, the price has still got some room to run.
I do not forecast, but here is how I would play it as of now: Expect a pullback today at the open - the pre-markets are indicating that. Then trade for the move up to close to the 4100 level.