Bitcoin Ethereum Crypto assessment
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum (and I am guessing most of crypto) have been very choppy in 2022 so far. Bitcoin is down -12% and Ethereum is down -27%. It is interesting that Bitcoin is performing relatively better than Ethereum. The chart below is for the year-to-date and accounts for the overnight bump after the Biden executive order on cryptocurrencies.
If one looks at the longer-term trends, then the returns are reversed. Below is the 1-year chart for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
There is a wide gap between Bitcoin (down -23%) to Ethereum (up +46%).
A better way to see the inter-related trend is to see the BTC-ETH chart which is removing the USD and showing the value of BTC against ETH.
Looking at the YTD chart with short-term moving averages, we can see there is a steady strengthening of Bitcoin against Ethereum.
However, here is the longer-term 1-year chart with longer-term moving averages.
We can see that Bitcoin has fallen about -50% against Ethereum over the year. However, from a current trend perspective, the 50-day moving average crossed over both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages recently.
As of now, it seems to be that Bitcoin will continue to outperform Ethereum for the near future. So, where are we with Bitcoin trending?
We actually have been bobbling within a tight range. And while the price of Bitcoin did just cross over all the short-term moving averages, it was really the bump last night that did it. What remains to be seen if Bitcoin price can continue with this momentum. Right now, one level we can watch is the YTD high which was at the beginning of the year at around 47.5k.
In the chart above, we can see the longer-term moving averages. So, the first milestone is the 43.6k which is the 100-day moving average. Then it is 47.5k which is the YTD high and lastly it is 49k which is the 20-day moving average.
Note that for a fully formed bullish trend, we really need the 50-day moving average (currently at 40k) to cross over the 200-day. That would be a good indicator of bullish behavior coming back to Bitcoin. We seem to be at least a few weeks away from that happening.