Bitcoin and Ethereum assessment
All of crypto is showing down about -4.7% over the last 24 hours at this time. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have also slumped similarly. Looking at Bitcoin over the short-term first:
Bitcoin is down -5.44% from its recent high of 47,465 reached on March 28. The 10-day moving average is still above the 20-day moving average and the 20-day moving average is above the 50-day moving average. So, the short-term trendlines are where they should be. However, the Bitcoin price crossed below the 10-day moving average 2 days back and is close to touching the 20-day moving average as well. This could mean anything, but I am not ready to call it a downtrend yet.
Looking at a longer-term picture for Bitcoin:
We can see that Bitcoin has not done much over the trailing 1-year. The price is still below the 200-day moving average which currently sits at 48,251. It is above the 100-day moving average though and also the 50-day is close to crossing over the 100-day moving average. So, that is encouraging.
Bitcoin returns over:
1-month +16.7%
3-months +3.92%
6-months -18.98%
1-year -22.95%
We can clearly see that Bitcoin is trying to come out of its downtrend. The recent price action has been encouraging for that.
Looking at short-term Ethereum:
The Ethereum short-term trend is somewhat similar to Bitcoin. Although, on closer inspection the price movement is better than that of Bitcoin. The moving averages are where they should be but the price has maintained strength through April 2.
Looking at longer-term Ethereum trends:
Again, the Ethereum trends look very similar to Bitcoin. However, the Ethereum price is much closer to its 200-day moving average. So, better.
Here are the comparative returns for Bitcoin and Ethereum over several time periods:
Very different returns can be seen even though our expectation may be that they have been moving in tandem.
To eliminate USD from the picture, here is a chart of Bitcoin against Ethereum:
After a steep decline where Ethereum gained significantly more than Bitcoin (which can be considered as a “catch-up”), the 2 largest cryptocurrencies have been mostly moving in tandem over the last 10 months or so.
Final note that I am a long-term investor in both Bitcoin and Ethereum and do not trade them in short-term cycles. I continue to hold and accumulate.